Egypt Rising: Will Mubarak Fall

The current rising in Egypt is not a partial or protest of particular sect in the country rather its uprising of the Egyptian citizens in the whole. The population which is flooding the Tahrir Square are most of them are from urban side of the state. They’re also the educated, the middle classes, even many of the wealthy, all saying no to the paucity of dignity and freedom in their lives.
By Mohamed Tanveer

No U.S flag is burned or none has attacked the U.S. embassy despite huge mobilization. The protests were not even about Egypt's 30 years of collaboration with Israel's occupation, especially its role in maintaining the siege of Gaza - opposition to which is arguably the greatest point of political unity in the country.

People have been very clear about their outrage at how the U.S. has armed President Hosni Mubarak with the very weapons killing protesters in the streets.

But the demands of this mobilization are directed to domestic and internal issues. Foreign policy will come just a little bit later.

While Egypt's top military brass is closely linked to the Mubarak regime, the army itself is made up primarily of poor conscripts, who are simply not willing to turn their guns on fellow citizens.

Despite the $1.3 billion military aid Washington has provided every year since 1979, Mubarak's government has been unable to use the military against the revolt.

The protesters aren't primarily Islamists, although Egypt's powerful but always cautious Muslim Brotherhood has led the street protests on January 28. (The protests are not explicitly secular either).

Young people adept at social media are playing a leadership role unusual in the region, reminiscent of the young activists of the first Palestinian Intifada of 1987.

They have gained significant respect and authority from the older, more experienced leaders.

The Egyptian protests so far appear closer to the people-power ouster of the Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos in 1986 than any other international precedent. There are major differences between Egypt's upheaval and Iran's anti-Shah mobilization of 1978-79.

There, mass protests were composed primarily of numerous competing, contending and sometimes antagonistic social movements, all divided along political, sectarian and organizational lines.

At the Middle East regional level, there is somewhat of a parallel to the shifts of Latin America's southern cone in the late 1980s, as U.S.-backed dictatorships in Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and others were brought down.

The long struggles for democracy there were led by experienced political coalitions that cohered around broad progressive social movements.

Those social forces don't have exact counterparts in the Arab world, where years of suppression of social movements (other than in the mosques) left them relatively less organizationally unified.

The Latin American example is perhaps the model movements of the Arab world are looking to emulate.

One of the big uncertainties is what the impact of the current transformation will be on the more than 30-year-old U.S.-orchestrated ties between Egypt and Israel. The 1979 Camp David peace treaty, the first signed by an Arab state with Israel, remains the centre piece of Israel's security doctrine and at the core of the U.S.-Egypt relationship.

Israeli officials, not surprisingly, are terrified at the prospect of the Mubarak regime collapsing and tacitly acknowledge that the Israeli relationship with Egypt is possible only because there's no democratic accountability there. But it's unlikely that any new government, whether interim or permanent, will move toward a full-scale break with the U.S. and Israel, such as "unsigning" the Camp David peace agreement.

Aside from everything else, the U.S. aid is grounded in the terms of Camp David. No new Egyptian government is likely to give that up, at least right away.

What is a likely possibility is the immediate opening of the Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza, allowing the free flow of people and goods.

It would be a great move, ending the Arab state's support for Israel's occupation policies. A new Middle East without at least some of the U.S. - backed dictatorships means new possibilities for a just peace based on international law and human rights.

Both US President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are stressing the need for an "orderly" transition. One can only wonder, do they really think the U.S. still has the power, let alone the right, to decide what's sufficiently "orderly"?

Mubarak pledged that he would step down but only in September this year when his term comes to an end.

It is a clear node that Mubarak announcement was a game and just the beginning of his conspiracy plan as the Egyptians reacted negative to his announcement and continued the protest.

Aftermath this scene of the revolutionary protest has got an ugly dimensions, sources say that Mubarak regime is paying those taking part in pro-Mubarak protest. Turmoil has frenzied Tahrir Square after the pro-Mubarak paid protestors jumped in to scene.

In the up-market Mohandeseen district, an estimated 3,000 people rallied in support of Mubarak, chanting "We don't want you to go," and accusing Mohamed El-Baradei of being a traitor.

A witness said organizers were paying people 100 Egyptian pounds (12 euros, $17) to take part in the pro-Mubarak rally.

The clashes have marked a dangerous new phase in Egypt's upheaval - the first significant violence between supporters of the two camps in more than a week of anti-government protests.

Clashes began, first in the port city of Alexandria, just hours after Mubarak went on national television and rejected protesters' demands he step down immediately. He defiantly insisted he would serve out the remaining seven months of his term.

Gatherings of Mubarak supporters are making a hostile situation to journalists and foreigners as well. Two AP correspondents and several other journalists were roughed up during various such gatherings. State TV reported that foreigners were caught distributing anti-Mubarak leaflets, apparently trying to depict the movement as foreign-fueled.

Source has strong report that most of the pro-Mubarak protestors are from intelligence and informers while the rest are paid ones.

Supporters of President Hosni Mubarak have even opened fire on protesters in Cairo's Tahrir Square, which has killed five pro-democracy protestors.

"One way or other we will bring Mubarak down," some protesters chanted. "We will not give up, we will not sell out," others shouted.

In a statement on Al Jazeera, the Brotherhood said: "We demand that this regime is overthrown and formation of a national unity government for all the factions." 
The turn in situation is despite of being a banned movement; the Muslim Brotherhood has gained substantial support of the Egyptians which has been witnessed in the 2005 parliamentary elections. The Brotherhood's candidates, who had to run as independents due to their illegality as a political party, won 88 seats (20% of the total) to form the largest opposition bloc.

The Islamist group, which has potentially risen as a powerful opposition party to cause troubles Mubarak's Western allies.

This time Muslim Brotherhood has made a greater impact in the current scenario of this uprising revolution as it has banded with the secular opposition. Now the time will answer whether it would be the victory of a people's democratic regime compromising Muslim Brotherhood and secular parties or the Mubarak's allies.

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